'Simulated U.S. 2012 Presidential election
'Using data from http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

'Copyleft M. Eric Carr / Paleotechnologist.Net
'eric@paleotechnologist.net


const numDistricts = 55 'Needs to be at least as many as will be read in
const maxRuns=1000000000
const debug=0


type district
    name as string*5    'Really, abbreviations for each
    odds as double      'Probability of Democratic victory in this district
    electors as ubyte   'No state will ever have more than 255 -- right??
    end type


dim districts(numdistricts) as district
dim as ubyte curDistrict, lastDistrict
dim as ulongint numRuns, numVictories, numTies, numLosses, goodGuy, badGuy, x
dim as double r
dim as ulongint electoralResults(540)

'Clear the electoral results
for x = 0 to 540
    electoralResults(x)=0
    next x

'Read in the data
open "c:\Users\Eric\Desktop\Electors.txt" for input as #1
curDistrict=0
while not eof(1)
    curDistrict=curDistrict+1
    input #1, districts(curDistrict).name
    input #1, districts(curDistrict).odds
    districts(curDistrict).odds = districts(curDistrict).odds / 100
    input #1, districts(curDistrict).electors
    wend
close #1

lastDistrict = curDistrict

'Set up the simulation
numRuns=0
numVictories=0
numTies=0
numLosses=0

while numRuns<maxRuns
    numRuns = numRuns + 1
    goodGuy=0
    badGuy=0
    for curDistrict=1 to lastDistrict
        'Check for a win. Assume no ties in any single electoral district, and
        'no electoral victories for third-party candidates.
        r = rnd
        if debug=1 then print r, districts(curDistrict).odds
        if r<districts(curDistrict).odds then
            goodGuy = goodGuy + districts(curDistrict).electors
            if debug=1 then print "Good"
        else
            badGuy = badGuy + districts(curDistrict).electors
            if debug=1 then print "Bad"
        end if
        if debug=1 then 
            while inkey$=""
                wend
            end if
        next curDistrict
    if goodGuy > badGuy then numVictories = numVictories + 1
    if goodGuy = badGuy then numTies = numTies + 1
    if goodGuy < badGuy then numLosses = numLosses + 1

    electoralResults(goodGuy)=electoralResults(goodGuy)+1

    if numRuns mod 100000 = 0 then
        locate 1,1
        print using "###,###,###,###";numVictories;
        print using "###,###,###,###"; numTies;
        print using "###,###,###,###"; numLosses
        locate 2,1
        print using "###.##% wins   ";100*numVictories/numRuns
        print using "###.##% ties   ";100*numTies/numRuns
        print using "###.##% losses   ";100*numLosses/numRuns
        end if
    wend

'Output results to a file
open "c:\users\Eric\Desktop\electoral_results.txt" for output as #1
for x=0 to 540
    print #1, x;", ";electoralResults(x)
    next x
close #1

print "Done!"
while inkey$=""
    wend